Readings Chermack, T. (2011). Scenario Planning in Organizations: How to create, use and assess scenarios. San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler. Chapter 8-Phase 4-Scenario Implementation Chapter 9-Phase 5-Project Assessment Ogilvy, J. (2011). Facing the fold: Essays on scenario planning [ebrary version]. Axminster, England: Triarchy Press. Retrieved from the Walden University Library databases. Chapter 1, “Plotting Your Scenarios” (pp. 13–34) Chapter 8, “Mapping Scenario Planning in the Public and Private Sectors: Lessons From Regional Projects” (pp. 195–204) Wade, P. A., & Wade, W. (2015). Scenario planning: A field guide to the future [ebrary version]. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. Retrieved from the Walden University Library databases. Chapter 2, “How-To” (pp. 26–65) In order to build a scenario, you need to identify the driving forces as well as the trends that may have an impact on your organization and the environment in which it operates in the long term. In looking at trends, you should ask yourself which are the most important and likely to have the most impact, as well as which are the most predictable and least predictable in the future time frame you are considering. For this Discussion, review the data collected from previous weeks and continue to do research using the Internet, databases, government reports, newspaper articles, and other sources to answer one of the following groups of questions that will help build your scenarios with regard to your organization. Post by Day 3 your answer to one of the following groups of questions: Growth/socioeconomic scenarios: What might the future look like given different population or growth projections in 20 years? Explain which trends are likely to have the most impact on your organization and region. Explain which trends are likely to have predictable outcomes and which may have unpredictable ones. Environmental scenarios: What might the future look like given different environmental trends and needs in 20 years? Explain which trends are likely to have the most impact on your organization and region. Explain which trends are likely to have predictable outcomes and which may have unpredictable ones. Economic scenarios: What might the future look like given different trends in various sectors of the economy such as energy, manufacturing, transportation, and agriculture in 20 years? Explain which trends are likely to have the most impact on your organization and region. Explain which trends are likely to have predictable outcomes and which may have unpredictable ones. Identify and explain at least three of the data resources you used to answer the question, and identify where you might look for additional information.
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